Earth Science: Environmental Challenges and Solutions
Research Article Volume: 2 & Issue: 2
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Abstract
Background: The stratospheric polar vortex is known to influence Arctic surface climate primarily via dynamical downward propagation of annular mode anomalies. However, observational and modelling evidence increasingly points to an additional radiative pathway involving ozone, water vapour, and clouds.
Purpose: This study quantifies the coupled dynamical–radiative framework, partitioning the surface temperature response to vortex variability into its two components and assessing their interactions, timescales, and regional expressions.
Methods: We combine ERA5, MERRA 2, and JRA 55 re analyses (1980–2023) with satellite products (CERES, MLS, CloudSat) and targeted CAM6 model experiments with specified dynamics and fixed ozone/cloud fi elds. Composite analyses, lagged correlations, and causal network modelling are employed. Findings: The dynamical pathway dominates the first 2–3 weeks (accounting for 60–70% of the surface variance), whiles the radiative pathway dominated by the longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE, +14.5 W m⁻²) lags by 2–4 weeks and contributes 30–40%. Weak vortex events generate a total Arctic warming of +1.6 °C (dynamical +1.0 °C, radiative +0.6 °C). Over the Barents Kara Seas the radiative fraction reaches 45%, and over Greenland warming events it is 46%. Observed Arctic winter warming (0.9 °C per decade) is 33% attributable to radiative changes, a fraction projected to increase by 25% by 2050 under SSP5 8.5.
Conclusion: Arctic surface climate cannot be fully understood from dynamics alone; the radiative pathway is essential for explaining the magnitude, persistence, and regional patterns of temperature anomalies. Recommendation: Next generation coupled stratosphere troposphere–radiation models must include interactive ozone chemistry, mixed phase cloud microphysics, and explicit vortex cloud LWCRE diagnostics to improve sub seasonal to seasonal prediction and Arctic climate projections.
Keywords: Stratospheric polar vortex; Arctic surface climate; radiative pathway; cloud radiative effect; dynamical–radiative coupling.
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