A Coupled Dynamical-Radiative Framework for Stratospheric Polar Vortex Impacts on Arctic Surface Climate: Dominant Dynamics, Essential Radiative Amplification, and Regional Patterns

Belay Sitotaw Goshu*

Received : July 15, 2026 | Published : August 17, 2026

Citation: Goshu, B.S. (2026) ‘A Coupled Dynamical-Radiative Framework for Stratospheric Polar Vortex Impacts on Arctic Surface Climate: Dominant Dynamics, Essential Radiative Amplifi cation, and Regional Patterns.’ Earth Science: Environmental Challenges and Solutions, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1–22.

License: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) , which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format, provided appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and the source, a link to the Creative Commons licence is provided, and any changes made are indicated.

Abstract

Background: The stratospheric polar vortex is known to influence Arctic surface climate primarily via dynamical downward propagation of annular mode anomalies. However, observational and modelling evidence increasingly points to an additional radiative pathway involving ozone, water vapour, and clouds.

Purpose: This study quantifies the coupled dynamical–radiative framework, partitioning the surface temperature response to vortex variability into its two components and assessing their interactions, timescales, and regional expressions.

Methods: We combine ERA5, MERRA 2, and JRA 55 re analyses (1980–2023) with satellite products (CERES, MLS, CloudSat) and targeted CAM6 model experiments with specified dynamics and fixed ozone/cloud fi elds. Composite analyses, lagged correlations, and causal network modelling are employed. Findings: The dynamical pathway dominates the first 2–3 weeks (accounting for 60–70% of the surface variance), whiles the radiative pathway dominated by the longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE, +14.5 W m⁻²) lags by 2–4 weeks and contributes 30–40%. Weak vortex events generate a total Arctic warming of +1.6 °C (dynamical +1.0 °C, radiative +0.6 °C). Over the Barents Kara Seas the radiative fraction reaches 45%, and over Greenland warming events it is 46%. Observed Arctic winter warming (0.9 °C per decade) is 33% attributable to radiative changes, a fraction projected to increase by 25% by 2050 under SSP5 8.5.

Conclusion: Arctic surface climate cannot be fully understood from dynamics alone; the radiative pathway is essential for explaining the magnitude, persistence, and regional patterns of temperature anomalies. Recommendation: Next generation coupled stratosphere troposphere–radiation models must include interactive ozone chemistry, mixed phase cloud microphysics, and explicit vortex cloud LWCRE diagnostics to improve sub seasonal to seasonal prediction and Arctic climate projections.

Keywords: Stratospheric polar vortex; Arctic surface climate; radiative pathway; cloud radiative effect; dynamical–radiative coupling.